Friday, December 16, 2011

NFL 2011 week 15

I forgot — again — about the Thursday night game but take the Falcons minus whatever you have to give against the wretched Jaguars.

Saturday night: Dallas -7 at Tampa Bay: Bucs have been awful, just awful. Feel comfortable with this number.

Sunday morning:

Best teams in the league in terms of points for/points against: SF 1.69 (10-3); GB 1.68 (13-0); Hou 1.59 (10-3); Bal 1.58 (10-3); NE 1.45 (10-3) and NO 1.45 (10-3); Pit 1.42 (10-3).

Best teams vs. point spread: NFC — SF (10-2-1); GB (9-4); NO (9-4); Sea (8-4-1); Was (8-5). AFC — Hou (10-3); Cin (7-5-1); Oak (7-5-1); Bal (7-5-1); Den (7-6) tied with KC and Mia.

Which tells you what, exactly? That the Ravens don't blow people out. That the Niners might eventually give Green Bay problems. And that if I paid more attention to this stuff instead of guessing I'd have a better record this season.

New York - New England:

Jets +3 at Phi: This seems like a real tossup. Pick Jets because they're still in it.

Giants -6.5 vs. Was: Redskins are bad but Giants aren't much better. The one thing NY has is a quarterback who can engineer things. Unhappy with the number but will take the chance.

Den +6.5 vs. NE: I think this is where the last-minute stuff comes to a halt for the Broncos. They need to be close or ahead the entire game to win it. Plus Brady has been known to pull some last-moment stunts himself. The non-existent Pats secondary makes me take the home 'dog plus the points. but I think NE wins this game.

Buf -1 vs. Mia: Really belongs in the "Who Cares?' dept. but let's go with the woesome Bills at home against the leaderless Dolphins.

Of interest:

SF -2.5 vs. Pit (Monday night): As I crunch the numbers the 49ers are a better club. And I like that missing half point.

Bal -2.5 at SD (Sunday night): Ravens out score opponents by a 1.58-1 margin; Chargers by 1.08-1. This should be enough for Baltimore to put SD out of its misery.

Hou - 6.5 vs. Car: For a team with no QB the Texans seem to be doing pretty well.

Det -1 vs. Oak: Raiders = Faders. Cheatin' Lions prevail. Keep hope alive.

NO -6.5 at Min: A dome is a dome.

GB -13.5 at KC: Packers outscore opponents by 1.68: 1; Chiefs are scored on 1: .57 . This is called a "gap."


Sea +3.5 at Chi
Ten -6.5 at Ind
Cin -6.5 at StL
AZ -7 vs. Cle

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