After looking at the expanded Against the Spread stats on the New York Post's website and noting that the line has not budged from New England -3, I have no choice but to take the Giants plus 3.
But I will venture out on a slight limb, taking the over (54). And I predict New York wins by a touchdown or better.
If I get the main bet right then my season is a wash at .500. The O/U and Giants picks are extraneous.
Earlier this week...
I admit I was hoping for Baltimore vs. San Francisco. That's because I live in an area evenly split between Giants and Patriots fans, and I am a Jets fan. Therefore, I want the maximum anguish for my friends, and with the NE vs. NY matchup, half of them will be happy Sunday night.
Never mind that. The question is, how do we bet this game?
The line opened at Pats -3 1/2. The assumption is that this will be a field goal game. 27-24, something like that. New England rarely covers as a favorite, let alone blowing anyone out. So New York is the obvious bet at this line.
But the line went down a couple days later, and has stayed put at an even 3 points. So if you think the Giants will win or the Patriots will win by a field goal, you have to bet New York.
If you take the Pats and they win by the FG, it's a push.
If, as I suspect, the line drops to 2 1/2 by kickoff to attract more New England money, then you have to rethink.
Of course, either team's quarterback could get mauled early and make this entire discussion academic.