Sunday, October 9, 2011

NFL 2011 week five

Wednesday morning QB: Bad day for NY football, eh? Which team stinks more? Record on the week a mediocre 6-7, barely treading water, and an overall 26-37-2. Two good weeks and I'm in the black.

Winging it last week was a modest success, and with a 10-5-1 showing (20-32-2 overall) a step closer to respectability.

With a quarter of the season in the books, it is now possible to take a very basic measurement of the teams scoring potential by dividing points for by points against (see your expanded standings in our newspaper, if you still read one).

Therefore, in the Giants -10 vs. Seattle game, New York is 3-1 with a scoring differential (what I call the Z Factor) of 1.24 and the Seahawks are 1-3 with a .60.

So the Giants have outscored their four opponents slightly (a cumulative 15 points) and Seattle hardly at all (cumulative -39). Add in home field advantage and the fact that the Seahawks have dorky uniforms and the choice is clear: Giants minus 10 over Seattle.

(First team is the pick)

NYJ + 7.5 at NE: Thinking here is that Pats will probably win, but not by more than a TD.
Indy -2.5 vs. KC: Colts have to win some time, and KC's a likely fall guy.
AZ + 3 at Min: Another battle of titans. No faith in Vikes here.
Buf +3 vs. Phi: Vick, Schmick. How about some facts — Bills, 3-1 (1.39); Eagles 1-3 (1.00). Oddsmakers are stubborn people, and the prevailing sentiment is that Michael Vick is a somewhat flawed but nonetheless powerful god. This one's got "push" written all over it.
Hou -5.5 vs. Oak: Raiders are more or less for real, in a middle of the pack way, but Texans are outscoring opponents and playing a nice brand of football. Plus anything associated with Texas inflames northeastern liberals and therefore pleases me.
NO -6.5 at Car: We keep hearing that whatsisname's going to have the big breakout game; in the meantime the Saints are 3-1 (1.30) and the Panthers are 1-3 (.87). The missing half point makes the bet even more plausible.
Cin +2 at Jax: This game is blacked out everywhere except Iran and North Korea.
Ten +3 at Pit: This is more wishful thinking on my part than anything else. I am enjoying the Steelers' demise — specifically, the demise of the creep who shoves girls around and worse.
I'm also tired of the guy with the hair.
SF -3 vs. TB: In which the 49ers fight to uphold the honor of their division, which as a group is 5-11.
SD - 3.5 at Den: The Incredible Shrinking Point Spread, as oddsmakers get hip to the fact that the Chargers do not blow anybody out.
GB -6 at Atl: They keep saying the Falcons are tough and I keep waiting to see it. Right now they look pretty ordinary, and the Packers look like 5-0.
Det - 5.5 vs. Chi: Why not the Lions? Their Z Factor is second in the league at 1.78. Chicago is 2-2-2 (.96) and looking very blah.

No comments: