Sunday, October 2, 2011

NFL 2011 week four

Tuesday morning QB: Winging it was better. 10-5-1 (20-32-2, .385), getting closer to the .500 mark.

After this week a quarter of the season will be in the can and a meaningful statistical sample thus available. The single best number is the simplest: divide points for by points against and you get a number. If it's 1.00 or above, the team scores as many or more than their opponents. Under 1.00, the reverse. So if a team's number is 2.5 and they are playing a club with a .85, for example, that should tell you something about winning, losing, and by how much.

But this week we continue with the wildly unsuccessful "winging it" method...

Picks, with a heavy emphasis on home underdogs

NYG - 1.5 at AZ
NYJ + 3.5 at Bal
Det + 2.5 at Dal
Jax + 7 vs. NO
SF + 9.5 at Phi
Was - 2.5 at StL
Cle even vs. Ten
Buf -3 at Cin
KC + 2.5 vs. Min; Chiefs have to win some time, Vikes a good candidate.
Car + 6.5 at Chi
Hou -4 vs. Pit
Sea +5 vs. Atl
SD -7 vs. Mia
GB -12.5 vs. Den
Oak +5 vs. NE
TB -10 vs. Ind

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