NFL 2011 week five

Wednesday morning QB: Bad day for NY football, eh? Which team stinks more? Record on the week a mediocre 6-7, barely treading water, and an overall 26-37-2. Two good weeks and I'm in the black.

Winging it last week was a modest success, and with a 10-5-1 showing (20-32-2 overall) a step closer to respectability.

With a quarter of the season in the books, it is now possible to take a very basic measurement of the teams scoring potential by dividing points for by points against (see your expanded standings in our newspaper, if you still read one).

Therefore, in the Giants -10 vs. Seattle game, New York is 3-1 with a scoring differential (what I call the Z Factor) of 1.24 and the Seahawks are 1-3 with a .60.

So the Giants have outscored their four opponents slightly (a cumulative 15 points) and Seattle hardly at all (cumulative -39). Add in home field advantage and the fact that the Seahawks have dorky uniforms and the choice is clear: Giants minus 10 over Seattle.

(First team is the pick)

NYJ + 7.5 at NE: Thinking here is that Pats will probably win, but not by more than a TD.

Indy -2.5 vs. KC: Colts have to win some time, and KC's a likely fall guy.

AZ + 3 at Min: Another battle of titans. No faith in Vikes here.

Buf +3 vs. Phi: Vick, Schmick. How about some facts — Bills, 3-1 (1.39); Eagles 1-3 (1.00). Oddsmakers are stubborn people, and the prevailing sentiment is that Michael Vick is a somewhat flawed but nonetheless powerful god. This one's got "push" written all over it.

Hou -5.5 vs. Oak: Raiders are more or less for real, in a middle of the pack way, but Texans are outscoring opponents and playing a nice brand of football. Plus anything associated with Texas inflames northeastern liberals and therefore pleases me.

NO -6.5 at Car: We keep hearing that whatsisname's going to have the big breakout game; in the meantime the Saints are 3-1 (1.30) and the Panthers are 1-3 (.87). The missing half point makes the bet even more plausible.

Cin +2 at Jax: This game is blacked out everywhere except Iran and North Korea.

Ten +3 at Pit: This is more wishful thinking on my part than anything else. I am enjoying the Steelers' demise — specifically, the demise of the creep who shoves girls around and worse.

I'm also tired of the guy with the hair.

SF -3 vs. TB: In which the 49ers fight to uphold the honor of their division, which as a group is 5-11.

SD - 3.5 at Den: The Incredible Shrinking Point Spread, as oddsmakers get hip to the fact that the Chargers do not blow anybody out.

GB -6 at Atl: They keep saying the Falcons are tough and I keep waiting to see it. Right now they look pretty ordinary, and the Packers look like 5-0.

Det - 5.5 vs. Chi: Why not the Lions? Their Z Factor is second in the league at 1.78. Chicago is 2-2-2 (.96) and looking very blah.

Separated at Birth: Chris Carpenter and The Crusher

St. Louis pitcher Chris Carpenter, who made the Phillies look stupid last night, reminds me of The Crusher, who destroyed Ravishing Ronald but was no match for Bugs Bunny.

NFL 2011 week four

Tuesday morning QB: Winging it was better. 10-5-1 (20-32-2, .385), getting closer to the .500 mark.

After this week a quarter of the season will be in the can and a meaningful statistical sample thus available. The single best number is the simplest: divide points for by points against and you get a number. If it's 1.00 or above, the team scores as many or more than their opponents. Under 1.00, the reverse. So if a team's number is 2.5 and they are playing a club with a .85, for example, that should tell you something about winning, losing, and by how much.

But this week we continue with the wildly unsuccessful "winging it" method...

Picks, with a heavy emphasis on home underdogs

NYG - 1.5 at AZ

NYJ + 3.5 at Bal

Det + 2.5 at Dal

Jax + 7 vs. NO

SF + 9.5 at Phi

Was - 2.5 at StL

Cle even vs. Ten

Buf -3 at Cin

KC + 2.5 vs. Min; Chiefs have to win some time, Vikes a good candidate.

Car + 6.5 at Chi

Hou -4 vs. Pit

Sea +5 vs. Atl

SD -7 vs. Mia

GB -12.5 vs. Den

Oak +5 vs. NE

TB -10 vs. Ind

NFL 2011 week three

Tuesday morning QB: So much for that approach. I got crushed at 5-11 (10-27-1). My friend Kurt says "Other people's football picks bore the crap out of me" and I am coming around to his view.

Managed to stay on the plus side of the ledger last week with a 8-7-1 performance (14-16-1 overall). I was spectacularly wrong about the two New York teams.

The NYC tabloids, the Post and the Daily News, both have extensive football betting analysis and squads of alleged experts who pick the games against the spread. It is heartening to note that most of these professional prognosticators suck at it too.

Someone named Ebenezer Samuel, of the Daily News, has the best record so far, at 17-12-3. I am bravely hitching my wagon to Eb's this week, mostly out of laziness. Boredom is a factor as well; the pro game seems more static than ever, and I am truly fed up with the hype. I don't think the hoo-hah is any worse this year, I'm just less tolerant.

Anyway, I am sick to death of watching somebody make a routine tackle and commence to prance. When I am elected Dictator prancing will be a capital crime.

Eb and I believe the Eagles will prevail by 7 1/2 over the Giants in Philly.

We also like:

The Jets to cover the 3 1/2 in Oakland — actually, Eb likes the Raiders, so we diverge, but we contain multitudes.

Bengals - 2.5 vs. SF

Pats -8 at Buffalo

Houston +4 at NO

Miami + 2.5 at Cleveland

Ten - 6.5 vs. Denver

Detroit - 3.5 at Vikings

Carolina - 3.5 vs. Jax

SD - 14.5 vs. KC

Bal - 3.5 at StL

Atl +2 at TB

Arizona - 3.5 at Seattle

GB - 3.5 at Chicago

Pitt - 10 at Indy

Wash + 5.5 at Dallas

NFL 2011 week two

It was 6-9 vs. the spread last week (didn't pick the Saints-Packers game). That's a nice mediocre start.

NY Post line from Saturday, Sept. 17:

Picks in bold

NYJ -9 vs. Jax: Jax can run, keep this closer than 9

NO -7 vs. Chi

Det -8 vs. KC

Buf -3 vs. Oak

Was -4 vs. Az

Bal -6 at Ten

Pit -14 vs. Sea: Steelers bounce back against weak opponent

GB -10 at Car

Min -3 vs. TB

Cle -2 at Ind: Colts really are a one-man band

Dal -3 at SF: Take home dog for laughs and atavistic Cowboy hatred

Hou -3 at Mia

NE -7 vs. SD

Den -4 vs. Cin

Phi -2 at Atl

NYG -6 vs. StL: I think this is a long year for Giants fans

NFL 2011 week one

Oh, what the hell, let's take a stab at it again. Skipped the Green Bay -New Orleans opener; these picks have zero analysis behind them.

Picks in bold

At Baltimore -1 Pittsburgh

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Detroit

Atlanta -1 At Chicago

At Kansas City -3.5 Buffalo

At Houston -9 Indianapolis

Philadelphia -4 At St. Louis

At Cleveland -6.5 Cincinnati

Tennessee -1 At Jacksonville

NY Giants -2 At Washington

At Arizona -6.5 Carolina

At San Francisco -6 Seattle

At San Diego -9 Minnesota

At NY Jets -6 Dallas

New England -7 At Miami

At Denver -3 Oakland

Score: 6-9 vs. spread

McBain on the Silver Screen

Carelli and Teddy signing, sort of.

Vincent Gardenia, somewhat wilted

It was hot in the city, and air conditioning hadn't been invented yet. Or something.

Yes, that's Jerry Orbach

I've been on my semi-annual Ed McBain tear, especially the 87th Precinct novels, without which there would be no "Law and order."

Speaking of "Law and Order," the 1958 version of "Cop Hater" features an impossibly young Jerry Orbach as a street punk, head of a gang — er, social club called "The Grovers." You can tell the members from the general population by their tight tees that say "Grovers" on them. Also the pomade.

Vincent Gardenia, who used to pop up in 70s situation comedies like "All in the Family," is also on tap as alcoholic informer Danny the Gimp.

The film dispenses with the fictional "Isola" but doesn't exactly name the city, either. And for some reason they thought it wise to make Detective Steve Carella into a Carelli.

It's a fast flick, and a little sneaky in that the opening sequence makes it unclear if we're looking at a cop or a cop hater.

It's also pretty raunchy for the time — lots of semi-clad female pulchritude, in towels and underwear.

Surprisingly straightforward treatment of the Teddy Franklin character, Carelli's deaf/mute girlfriend.

Very bang bang. Anticipates the "CSI" shows by, oh, 50 years. Excellent noir direction. No wasted razzmatazz. A thoroughly solid B movie, often overlooked and not all that easy to find (got my DVD from a third party Amazon seller).

Four coils.